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Tyler Whitley reports that former Republican Congressman Thomas J. Bliley Jr., voting today at Westhampton Baptist Church in Richmond predicted a long night for Republicans unless “there is a Bradley effect.”
That is the circumstance in which some people are embarassed to tell pollsters that they can’t bring themselves to vote for an African-American, so they don’t tell the pollster the truth.
It is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American. In 1982 he ran for governor of California and led the polls heading into election day, but he lost the race to a Republican. It is also called the “Wilder effect” after Richmond’s Mayor L. Douglas Wilder, who led by a good margin in the polls in the race for governor in 1989, but barely eked out a victory.
Bliley predicted Republicans would begin making a comeback in 2010, because the Democrats will move too far to the left.
Bliley represented the 7th congressional district for 20 years before retiring in 2000. He was succeeded by Rep. Eric I. Cantor, also a Republican, who was up for re-election today.
