The NCAA Tournament prospects of two of the state’s stronger Division I programs, Richmond and Virginia, could be substantially affected by the outcome of this weekend’s games.

Richmond (17-5, 5-3 Atlantic 10) plays host to conference rival St. Joseph’s on Saturday (1 p.m.) in a game that will be televised by CBS Sports Network. If there is such a thing as a must-win game in early February, this is it for UR. Richmond, a gritty, likeable team that has thus far kept its head above water despite the absence of a true point guard, badly needs a noteworthy conference victory. It twice permitted tiop-drawer A-10 foes to wriggle off the hook in January: a 56-55 homecourt loss to Temple on a last-second shot; and en excruciating 81-78 overtime defeat at Dayton. Had the Spiders won either of those games, they would be in far more comfortable shape today. St. Joe’s (14-7, 4-3) lost 80-70 at Temple Wednesday night.

“This is why you play—for an opportunity like this; a chance to get a big win in a big game,” said Spiders guard Abby Oliver. “I know we’ve lost some close games—but what we’ve got to do now is look to the next game and make sure we control what we can control. We’ve got some talented kids, some very competitive kids, on this team. I think it’s a combination that can take us a long way.”

Oliver said the Spiders’ last seven regular-season games, four of which will be played on the road, “are so important. That’s what the NCAA [selection committee] will look at. We’ve really got to focus on taking care of business and finishing strong.”

Five A-10 teams, Charlotte (13-8, 5-2), St. Joe’s, Richmond, Duquesne (15-6, 3-3) and La Salle (9-12, 3-3) are battling for fourth place in the conference standings. Spiders coach Michael Shafer said it is important,if not essential, that his club separate itself from this pack by season’s end.

“It’s very important that we stay out of the fray…that we stay above the fray,” Shafer said. “The last thing we want to do is sink back into it.”

Virginia (16-7, 4-5 ACC) visits North Carolina on Friday and N.C. State on Sunday. It can help its cause immensely by winning one of those games. A lackluster finish will remove some of the sheen from the Cavaliers’ showcase victory: their early-season overtime conquest of powerful Tennessee. Virginia, a splendid defensive club (53.4 ppg) frightens no one with its ability to score (.380 shooting, 63.6 ppg).

“I think we’re going approach it the way we approach every other game,” said Cavaliers guard Lexie Gerson. “Every game is important but we’re just going to come out, play Virginia basketball, and hopefully in the end, it will be a good result.”

The hypothetical bracket assembled earlier this week by Charlie Creme, ESPN’s women’s selection specialist, predicts that Virginia will make the 64-team field as a No. 8 seed while Richmond, a bubble team, will miss. Creme’s bracket contains only one other state team: James Madison (a No. 10 seed). He sees Florida A&M winning the MEAC and High Point winning the Big South.

Upcoming games could loom large on Selection Monday