Virginia Tech winning again despite allowing big plays
Darryl Slater
Oct 07, 2009
Between some research I did on this topic last year and some numbers I just crunched today, I managed to come up with a handful of numbers for tomorrow’s story about Virginia Tech’s defense allowing big plays. If this sounds like a familiar storyline, that’s because it is. I and others wrote almost the exact same story several times last season.
Let’s consider this season first. Through five games, the Hokies are 4-1 (the only stat that really matters) in spite of allowing 20 plays of 20 yards or longer. They gave up five against Alabama, two against Marshall, five against Nebraska, three against Miami and five against Duke. Those plays account for just six percent of the total plays opponents have run against Tech, but they also account for 45.3 percent of opponents’ yards (769 of 1,699).
Last week, Duke’s five plays (passes of 26, 34, 48, 55 and 74 yards) accounted for 60 percent of the Blue Devils’ total yards. On their 66 other plays, they averaged 2.4 yards. That sort of dovetails into an interesting, albeit somewhat fantastical stat: Besides the 20 big plays Tech has given up this season, it is allowing an average of 2.9 yards per play on its opponents’ 316 other snaps. Now, you can’t just take those plays out, so take that for what it’s worth—which is to say, the five seconds it took me to punch in some numbers and hit the divide button on my cell phone’s calculator.
The most interesting thing about this big-play theme is that it mirrors last season’s first five games, after which the Hokies also were 4-1 despite opponents hitting them for long plays. In those five games (East Carolina, Furman, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Nebraska), Tech allowed 23 plays of 20 yards or longer. The long plays accounted for 7.9 percent of opponents’ snaps and 40.8 percent of their yards.
Tech’s defensive coordinator, Bud Foster, hopes his group can improve this season like it did in 2008. In the final nine games, Tech allowed just 30 plays of 20 yards or longer, to finish with 53 for the season, equaling its big-play total from 2007, which also was a 14-game season. (In 2006, Tech allowed 29 big plays in 13 games.) When analyzing the defense’s improvement, it’s also worth considering all the yards it allowed, not just big plays. In last year’s first five games, Tech gave up an average of 328.6. In the final nine games: 252.1.
Through five games this season, opponents are averaging 339.8 against the Hokies. Tech hasn’t allowed more than 296.9 yards per game in a season since 2003, when it surrendered 367.5. While Foster enjoys the distinction of Tech’s high national rankings in recent years—the Hokies have finished in the top nine nationally in total and scoring defense for five consecutive seasons—he’d surely sacrifice them this season if the defense just improves enough to help the Hokies win every game.
Time to get selective with these numbers and stick a few in the story for tomorrow’s print product.
In their first five games, the Hokies have surrendered 20 plays of 20 yards or longer.