Chesterfiled as Bellwether
Todd Culbertson
Nov 11, 2008
Although Barack Obama enjoyed steady leads in the polls, Election Day arrived with the outcome in doubt. Would the so-called Bradley (or Wilder) Effect mean an upset for John McCain? Virginia’s polls closed at 7. By 7:20 Chesterfield’s returns were suggesting trends. McCain led the GOP stronghold but with only about 54 percent. If a Republican wins Chesterfield with 54, he cannot win Virginia, and if he cannot win Virginia, he cannot win the nation. Our advice for calling next year’s gubernatorial election is to access the Chesterfield’s registrar’s Web site (the region’s best), check out the GOP percentage and amaze your friends and fellow windbags at the bar with your knowledge of Virginia politics.
Is Chesterfield the key to national elections.
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I was thinking the same thing Todd, and in fact I’ve used Chesterfield’s early results as a ‘gauge’ in many elections, gubernatorial & presidential. But consider these past results from Chesterfield:
In the 1965 election, the 2 major party candidates for governor were: Mills Godwin (D) and Linwood Holton (R). Godwin was known for being a segregationist; Holton was viewed as a new progressive type. Well, Chesterfield wasn’t carried by EITHER of the two—the county instead voted an obscure, Klan-endorsed candidate named Bill Story. Holton finished 2nd in Chesterfield; Godwin last.
Yet Mills Godwin won the state rather easily.
In recent years, there’s been a lot of demographic changes to Chesterfield. But I don’t believe the ‘old guard’ has vanished or softened or anything like that. Chesterfield can be a semi-accurate gauge, but not exactly a “bellwether.“
Larry Lanberg of Richmond city
Nov. 15, 2008 at 12:44 PM